Coin Toss.

He had a 50/50 chance.

Apparently, he lost. Obama is not like Bush.

CENTCOM commander Gen. David Petraeus, supported by Defence Secretary Robert Gates, tried to convince President Barack Obama that he had to back down from his campaign pledge to withdraw all U.S. combat troops from Iraq within 16 months at an Oval Office meeting Jan. 21.

But Obama informed Gates, Petraeus and Joint Chiefs Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen that he wasn't convinced and that he wanted Gates and the military leaders to come back quickly with a detailed 16-month plan, according to two sources who have talked with participants in the meeting.

Obama's decision to override Petraeus's recommendation has not ended the conflict between the president and senior military officers over troop withdrawal, however. There are indications that Petraeus and his allies in the military and the Pentagon, including Gen. Ray Odierno, now the top commander in Iraq, have already begun to try to pressure Obama to change his withdrawal policy.

A network of senior military officers is also reported to be preparing to support Petraeus and Odierno by mobilising public opinion against Obama's decision.

And that's OK! It really is! I've seen a lot of liberal bloggers bristle "Oh no he dinnit" about this, and I can't help but laugh about that a little bit.

First, it's cute, protecting President 80% Approval Rating, elected in large part because he stated that he planned to be out of Iraq within 15 months of taking office.

You can calm down. The Pentagon is always going to say they can win. I have to say I'm a little surprised that people are shocked by this. I would be more shocked if Petraeus didn't do something like this. He was tasked to achieve victory in Iraq, and he wants to see it through. Do people not expect him to play hardball to protect his plan, and what he believes to be in the best interest of honor of his guys, even if he wrecks himself in the process?

This is not a Constitutional crisis, and I actually applaud Petraeus and Gates if they do everything they can, including attempts to manipulate public opinion, against the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq. They are doing what they believe in their hearts is right. Fortunately for those who actually believe they are wrong, they have a boss they must answer to.

Again, Obama has an 80% approval rating. They can convince 100% of his supporters that the President of the United States is wrong, and he can still order the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq within two weeks if he so chooses. Obama is the Commander in Chief, and as such, can order the military to do whatever he wants--within Constitutional boundaries.

And the Commander in Chief has just ordered a man who led the American forces in Iraq for 20 months to plan for a withdrawal without achieving the success that was expected of his plan, success that Petraeus, no doubt, believes to be right around the corner. Or maybe he feels Iraq in its current state is too unstable for us to leave. Or maybe he's worried about the security of his forces during the withdrawal. But none of that really matters, nor does it really matter what he does outside of the official chain of command, so long as he follows orders to the best of his ability.

Kennedy's Pentagon wanted to throw down with the Russkies during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Yet we're not all dead. Lincoln's Democratic opponent in 1864 was Gen. George McClellan, former chief of the Army of the Potomac. McClellan lost. Gen. Douglas MacArthur disagreed with Truman's limited Korean engagement so much that he pulled of his own PR blitz within Congress, and when that failed, tried to provoke his own fight. If he had won, the phrase, "Old soldiers never die, they just fade away," would never have been spoken. The funny thing about military guys is that they often have a myopic view about military activity--which is exactly what you want, even if it's maddening that they're not espousing your particular view.